This seems reasonable and motivates my bias. But I don't know what to believe anymore.
Any conversation
Overvalued, maybe. Extremely valuable, yes, though.
For sure. We're well past the point of being able to reasonably claim that the tools have no practical use.
But I share the article's skepticism that LLM-based AI will "produce a fully automated drop-in replacement for most knowledge workers". Which it at this point has to in order to justify these companies' stupendous valuations.
Tomorrow no but there will always be the โhopeโ which is enough for the next 20 years before giving up. Which meanwhile would be replacing larger and larger chunks of the workforce so it wonโt really matter, weโll be adjusting our lives around it as well so we meet in the middle.
Tesla has been overvalued for over a decade with the promise of โfully autonomous carsโ and itโs still not losing its value, despite not meeting that (and probably never will, as the computation necessary to achieve it is bounded by physics).
a kis laptopnak pedig nincs elรฉg memรณriรกja, szรณval ezt a fลterminรกlt eredetileg programozรกsra vettem, azt nem tudom mรกr, mit akartam programozni vele, de pont รบgy zรบg, mint egy adatkรถzpont, รฉs hogyha egy kicsit korszerลฑsรญtem, a Gemma 4 LLM รฉppen visรญtva el fog tudni futni rajta
and the little laptop doesn't have enough memory, so I originally bought this main terminal for programming, I don't know what I wanted to program with it anymore, but it hums like a data center, and if I upgrade it a little, the Gemma 4 LLM will be able to run on it screaming
pรฉldรกul Telegram, Facebook, stb., de ilyen รผgynรถkรถkkel bรกrki talรกlkozhat naponta, egybลl felismerhetลk, meg is kell ลket szรฉpen jelรถlni, รฉs egyre bรฉnรกbbak a szรถvegรผk is, ahogy megfigyeltem, gondolom, attรณl fรผgg, ahogy promtoljรกk, vagy instruรกljรกk ลket, ha a gazdรกjuk kifogy az รถtletekbลl, a projekt hamar elfรกrad, a bot csak unalmas h#lyesรฉgekre kรฉpes egy idล utรกn
for example, Telegram, Facebook, etc., but anyone can encounter such agents every day, they are immediately recognizable, they need to be nicely labeled, and their text is getting lamer and lamer, as I have observed, I think it depends on how they are promoted or instructed, if their owner runs out of ideas, the project quickly gets tired, the bot is only capable of boring nonsense after a while
My Country is On Fire
mataherry.bearblog.dev/my-country-is-on-fire/
โฆ
NIH syndrome? I am guilty of it too. I love implementing things from scratch, you learn a lot by doing so and you get to own the codebase end-to-end, so no surprises and fighting around othersโ choices. It can get exhausting too though, in the end I succumb to using off-the-shelf components because my primary goals move at a higher level.
I don't see much point in trying to build software at a "higher level", like whole products and services. I'm going to go down low and train myself on the fundamentals. Hopefully in time I'll be able to contribute to the foundational bits.
You're right, it does get exhausting. At some point you just want to rebuild everything, which is not possible.