For sure. We're well past the point of being able to reasonably claim that the tools have no practical use.
But I share the article's skepticism that LLM-based AI will "produce a fully automated drop-in replacement for most knowledge workers". Which it at this point has to in order to justify these companies' stupendous valuations.
Tomorrow no but there will always be the โhopeโ which is enough for the next 20 years before giving up. Which meanwhile would be replacing larger and larger chunks of the workforce so it wonโt really matter, weโll be adjusting our lives around it as well so we meet in the middle.
Tesla has been overvalued for over a decade with the promise of โfully autonomous carsโ and itโs still not losing its value, despite not meeting that (and probably never will, as the computation necessary to achieve it is bounded by physics).
That's a different situation. Tesla's a public company whose valuation is driven by the market, which has the right to be irrational. My understanding is that the AI buildout is financed such that the companies need to turn a profit by ~2030 or else they drown in capital costs.
Or maybe the frontier labs become Tesla-like, if it turns out investors just want to believe in the dream and don't care about financials that don't make economic sense. I just don't see that happening, given current sentiment and the overwhelming unpopularity of AI in the West.
Been working on an old mastodon hosting project I tried to start a few years ago, with a focus on privacy. This is the first big project I've tried to come back to with the help of coding agents and find it invigorating, and gives me the confidence to actually finish the project. Who knows if it will ever make a dollar, but it sure is fun to watch my ideas come to life.
did they silently decrease the subscription limits on codex? (in addition to reintroducing the 5h limit?) subscription models suck so bad when they can just change the terms and make the product shittier.
ive been dual wielding 2 accounts with some fallback shenanigans. on average its enough for me, but on heavy weeks its annoying. + it feels intransparent
@carbonwriter๐งprofilefollow(\ (\
( โข โข)
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Full of mostly true stories, I occasionally write them down. Habit of talking to anyone. Bipolar. Author.wrote:
Finally got around to setting up Remux on my phone so I can connect to tmux sessions when I'm not at my laptop. Even just for around the house, this seems like it'll be super useful.
This is for monitoring/poking agentic coding sessions while I'm not at my computer. So, typically Claude, Emacs, and an overmind process running my app locally in different panes of a tmux window.
Call me old fashioned, but instead of adopting one of the "agentic coding orchestration frameworks" that seem to basically be reinventions of tmux, I've been tweaking my tried-and-true tmux-oriented workflow to incorporate agentic coding harnesses in an ergonomic way. I'm currently still using Claude Code, but getting Pi-curious as local models advance.
I will be dead, and many years will pass after that, before local models are capable to match those of the big companies, unless their intended use is banal.
It seems like we've reached a point where mid-grade frontier models like Sonnet are good enough for most day-to-day tasks. And Sonnet-grade models are already runnable on the higher end of consumer hardware.
In which case, I can imagine a workflow where local models serve as workhorses for implementing plans that you may bump up to e.g. Opus or Sol to produce.
Economist Lant Pritchett describes shifts in ideas as silly, controversial, progressive, then obvious.
Also:
"Radio has no future. X-rays are clearly a hoax. The aeroplane is scientifically impossible." - Lord Kelvin
". No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame." - CmdrTaco
Going to document some approaches to produce data visualizations using ari via DuckDB.
Donโt know why it didnโt occur to me earlier, that there would be some solid community extensions for #dataviznotesfollow in DuckDB.
I was trying to use an approach that relies on community extensions, but installing them is proving finicky.
Going to consider an approach that requires less futzing.
I never noticed the little halfsteps in the bassline of the verses of Rebel Yell before. It's so slinky and subconscious and makes the chorus that much more.